Radomiak Radom 0-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 20 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, 1.00 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Radomiak Radom 1W, Jagiellonia 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Jagiellonia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.24 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.984 / defence 1.040 | Jagiellonia attack 0.930 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.098. Data: 54 Radomiak Radom games / 54 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 31%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 40% | Jagiellonia 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.24 / Jagiellonia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.984 / def 1.040 | Jagiellonia attack 0.930 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.93x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.36
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.30
1.06
Jagiellonia xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.06 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 19D 16L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (14W 21D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.17 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 11W 8D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (4W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 19D 16L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 14W 21D 19L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.52 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 59%, Jagiellonia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Radomiak Radom) and 52% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Radomiak Radom's games and 63% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 52% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Radomiak Radom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.24 xG and Jagiellonia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Jagiellonia attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 31%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Jagiellonia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.41 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.