Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.213 / defence 1.084 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.123. Data: 34 Pogon Szczecin games / 0 Widzew Łódź games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.90 / Widzew Łódź 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.213 / def 1.084 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Widzew Łódź xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 56% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.21) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.85x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.97
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.93
1.03
Widzew Łódź xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
35.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.03 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Pre-Season
Widzew Łódź
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Widzew Łódź?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.90 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.03 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.08 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.