Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 1D 0L from 6 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 3W 2D 2L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 1.90 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Slask Wroclaw in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 50% and Slask Wroclaw 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 21% | Slask Wroclaw 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.24 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.393 / defence 1.016 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.271 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.226. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Slask Wroclaw have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Pogon Szczecin games / 14 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 27%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Slask Wroclaw 3.70. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 67% | Slask Wroclaw 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.24 / Slask Wroclaw 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.393 / def 1.016 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.271 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Slask Wroclaw xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.39x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
52%
1.92
21%
4.66
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.82
1.58
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
3%
35.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.58 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 7W 5D 2L from 14 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 3L across 14 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.86 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 71%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.67 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pogon Szczecin) and 67% (Slask Wroclaw). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Slask Wroclaw 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Slask Wroclaw 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.24 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.58 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.27 / defence 1.35, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 21% | Slask Wroclaw 27%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 21%, Slask Wroclaw 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.86 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.