Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 2.00 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Radomiak Radom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 39% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.199 / defence 1.295 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.975 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.108. Data: 23 Pogon Szczecin games / 23 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 34%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.50 / Radomiak Radom 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.199 / def 1.295 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.975 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.97x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.56
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.40
Radomiak Radom xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.40 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 13W 7D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 10W 9D 4L from 23 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.70 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.36 PPG from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.39 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 7D 3L in their last 23 games (2.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 9D 4L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.36 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 73%, Radomiak Radom 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Pogon Szczecin) and 46% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 36%; Radomiak Radom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 4-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.40 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.29 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 34%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 39%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 2.00 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.