Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 9W 0D 1L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Pogon Szczecin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Puszcza Niepołomice's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Puszcza Niepołomice in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 41% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Puszcza Niepołomice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.73 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.269 / defence 0.786 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.601 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.171. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 46 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 66% | Draw 23% | Puszcza Niepołomice 11%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Puszcza Niepołomice 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Puszcza Niepołomice's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 10% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 66% | Draw 23% | Puszcza Niepołomice 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 35% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.73 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.269 / def 0.786 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.601 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
35%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 66% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Puszcza Niepołomice's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.60x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.43
11%
8.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.28
0.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
8.80
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
2%
49.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.55 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 22W 8D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 10W 18D 18L from 46 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (15W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 7D 14L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.07 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 22W 8D 16L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 10W 18D 18L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.04 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
0
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 44%, Puszcza Niepołomice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pogon Szczecin) and 26% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 44% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 26% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.73 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.55 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 0.79 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.60 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 66% | Draw 23% | Puszcza Niepołomice 11%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.