Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pogon Szczecin have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Piast Gliwice have managed just 2 wins.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The historical record gives Pogon Szczecin a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 54% versus Piast Gliwice 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Piast Gliwice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / defence 0.794 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 44 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 43% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.43 / Piast Gliwice 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / def 0.794 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Piast Gliwice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 5W | Draws 3 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
43%
2.35
34%
2.92
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.45
1.02
Piast Gliwice xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
6%
17.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.02 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 19W 9D 16L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 19L across 44 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.36 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 9D 19L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.81 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 62%, Piast Gliwice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pogon Szczecin) and 57% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.