Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 49% versus Jagiellonia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Jagiellonia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.55 xG and Jagiellonia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.205 / defence 1.113 | Jagiellonia attack 1.000 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.209. Data: 48 Pogon Szczecin games / 47 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Jagiellonia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Pogon Szczecin dominate the H2H record, yet Jagiellonia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.55 / Jagiellonia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.205 / def 1.113 | Jagiellonia attack 1.000 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jagiellonia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Record (8 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 3 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.00x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.55
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.35
Jagiellonia xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.35 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 21W 9D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 24W 13D 10L from 47 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.81 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.27 PPG from 22 outings (16W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 9W 7D 6L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.72 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 24W 13D 10L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.27 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 41%, Jagiellonia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Pogon Szczecin) and 46% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 46% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Pogon Szczecin 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.55 xG and Jagiellonia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Jagiellonia attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 31%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.53 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.