Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 52%, yet in-form Gornik Zabrze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gornik Zabrze are 0.60 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 55% versus Gornik Zabrze 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.03 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.206 / defence 1.105 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.094 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Data: 67 Pogon Szczecin games / 67 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 24%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Gornik Zabrze 4.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Gornik Zabrze 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.03 / Gornik Zabrze 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.206 / def 1.105 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.094 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Gornik Zabrze xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (5 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.21x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.09x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.09
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.38
1.35
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
3%
32.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.35 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 67 games, going 32W 16D 19L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.51 PPG from 67 outings (28W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.51 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 18W 6D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.39 points per game from 33 outings (13W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 16D 19L in their last 67 games (1.67 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 28W 17D 22L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.82 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 61%, Gornik Zabrze 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pogon Szczecin and 54% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 58% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 54% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Gornik Zabrze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.03 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.35 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Gornik Zabrze 24%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 57%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.67 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.