Piast Gliwice 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 29 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Piast Gliwice. A 0.90 PPG lead over Zaglebie Lubin (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Zaglebie Lubin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.33 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / defence 0.968 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.960 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.161. Data: 35 Piast Gliwice games / 36 Zaglebie Lubin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 40% | Draw 32% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 40% | Draw 32% | Zaglebie Lubin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.33 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / def 0.968 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.960 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 40% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.96x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.12
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.41
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.08 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 9D 11L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (11W 6D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (4W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.23 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 11L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 11W 6D 18L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.47 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zaglebie Lubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 59%, Zaglebie Lubin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 59% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.33 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 40% | Draw 32% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Zaglebie Lubin 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.