Piast Gliwice 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.70 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 49% versus Zaglebie Lubin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 36% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.72 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.193 / defence 0.960 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.954 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.097. Data: 39 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.00. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.72 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.193 / def 0.960 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.954 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 52% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 2 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.95x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.59
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
28.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 18D 10L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.33 PPG from 39 outings (14W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.33 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 8W 8D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 18D 10L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.68 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zaglebie Lubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Piast Gliwice) and 53% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.72 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.00 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.