Nieciecza 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza to face Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Nieciecza (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Nieciecza's home record at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nieciecza are significantly better at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Legia Warszawa are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nieciecza register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Legia Warszawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nieciecza lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Nieciecza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 71% and Legia Warszawa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 55% | Legia Warszawa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.34 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.877 / defence 1.415 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.118. Data: 31 Nieciecza games / 65 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 41%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 70% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Nieciecza 1.34 / Legia Warszawa 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.877 / def 1.415 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.981 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Nieciecza 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 31% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Nieciecza 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 0.88x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.98x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.57
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.89
1.55
Legia Warszawa xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
7%
15.14
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.55 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nieciecza come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 7D 17L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (9W 13D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Nieciecza against 1.29 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nieciecza's home form reads 3W 4D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (2W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nieciecza are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.13 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 7W 7D 17L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 13D 9L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Nieciecza's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.87 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 4-1 on 15 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
2
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Nieciecza, 67% for Legia Warszawa — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nieciecza) and 40% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Nieciecza's games and 67% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Nieciecza's recent games and 40% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Nieciecza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Nieciecza 0-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.34 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.55 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nieciecza fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.88 / defence 1.42 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 31% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 41%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 55%, Legia Warszawa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.90 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.