Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Motor Lublin Arena to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Motor Lublin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Motor Lublin's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.10 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Motor Lublin, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Radomiak Radom — Radomiak Radom have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Oct 2026, ended Motor Lublin 3–2 Radomiak Radom — a Motor Lublin win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Motor Lublin and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Motor Lublin 65% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 56% | Radomiak Radom 60%). Note also that Radomiak Radom surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Motor Lublin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 2.08 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.054 / defence 1.180 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.959 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Motor Lublin's projected output up. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 48 games and Radomiak Radom's last 48.

Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 50% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 1.99 | Draw 4.18 | Radomiak Radom 3.87. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Motor Lublin 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Motor Lublin's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights