Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Legia Warszawa welcome Wisla Krakow to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 0.80 (Wisla Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Legia Warszawa, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 38% versus Wisla Krakow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 48% | Wisla Krakow 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.843 / defence 1.276 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.702 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.137. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Legia Warszawa games / 22 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Krakow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 30% | Wisla Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.28 / Wisla Krakow 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.843 / def 1.276 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.702 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.84x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.44
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.30
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.02 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 1D 14L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 0.90 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 4W 0D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 1D 14L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.20 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2022, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 30%, Wisla Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 50% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 40% of games; Wisla Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 50% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Wisla Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Krakow 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.28 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.02 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 1.28 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.70 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Wisla Krakow 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 0.90 PPG, Wisla Krakow 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.