Legia Warszawa 0-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Raków Częstochowa's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 58% versus Raków Częstochowa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.51 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.371 / defence 1.140 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.996 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.046. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Raków Częstochowa's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Legia Warszawa games / 41 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa lead the H2H ledger, but Legia Warszawa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 70% | Raków Częstochowa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.51 / Raków Częstochowa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.371 / def 1.140 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.996 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.37x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.00x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.68
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.69
1.19
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.19 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 41 games, going 20W 13D 8L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (17W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.54 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 13D 8L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.86 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 62%, Raków Częstochowa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Legia Warszawa's games and 62% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.51 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.37 / defence 1.14 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.78 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.