Legia Warszawa 4-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 0–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 57% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 49% | Radomiak Radom 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.49 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.015 / defence 1.005 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.099 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.113. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 38 games and Radomiak Radom's last 37.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.40 | Draw 3.49 | Radomiak Radom 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).

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