Legia Warszawa 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 4–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 52% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Pogon Szczecin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.91 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.023 / defence 0.955 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.268 / defence 0.629. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.194. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.629 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Legia Warszawa games / 56 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 22% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 48%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Pogon Szczecin 2.08. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Pogon Szczecin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 22% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Legia Warszawa 0.91 / Pogon Szczecin 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.023 / def 0.955 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.268 / def 0.629 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 22% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
22%
4.55
30%
3.31
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.36
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
19.30
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.45 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 16D 11L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.77 PPG from 56 outings (29W 12D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.84 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 18W 8D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.71 points per game from 28 outings (14W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.79 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 16D 11L in their last 56 games (1.84 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.21 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Pogon Szczecin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Legia Warszawa) and 46% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, as Legia Warszawa and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 0.91 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 0.63, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 22% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 48%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Pogon Szczecin 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.84 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.