Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Piast Gliwice are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Legia Warszawa 3W, Piast Gliwice 4W, 1D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 64% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Piast Gliwice 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.826 / defence 0.893 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.162 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.191. Data: 51 Legia Warszawa games / 50 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 35%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.21 / Piast Gliwice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.826 / def 0.893 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.162 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 34% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (8 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 4W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.83) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.16x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
34%
2.97
31%
3.20
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.44
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.24 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 18W 16D 16L from 50 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 18L across 50 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.24 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 11W 8D 5L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 16D 16L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 17D 18L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.71 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
5
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 62%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 42% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Piast Gliwice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Legia Warszawa's games and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 42% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 35%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Piast Gliwice 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.