Legia Warszawa 1-2 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza meet at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Wojska Polskiego than their overall form suggests.
Nieciecza (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.14 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Legia Warszawa. A 0.70 PPG lead over Nieciecza (1.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 0 for Nieciecza and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 4–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nieciecza half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 57% and Nieciecza 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 43% | Nieciecza 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.58 xG and Nieciecza 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.844 / defence 0.671 | Nieciecza attack 1.023 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.164. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Legia Warszawa games / 14 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 17%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Nieciecza 5.88. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 40% | Nieciecza 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.58 / Nieciecza 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.844 / def 0.671 | Nieciecza attack 1.023 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Nieciecza xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 2 Nieciecza.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 54% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 1 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Nieciecza (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.84x the league average against Nieciecza's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nieciecza's attack (1.02x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 47/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.46
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.38
0.80
Nieciecza xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
28.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.80 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 4W 6D 4L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nieciecza, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 8L across 14 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nieciecza heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 3W 4D 0L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nieciecza's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.71 PPG overall record — Nieciecza travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 64%.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Nieciecza away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.86 PPG; Nieciecza away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Nieciecza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nieciecza in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 4-1 on 15 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
1
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Nieciecza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 43%, Nieciecza 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Nieciecza).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 57% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Legia Warszawa 1-2 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.58 xG and Nieciecza 0.80 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Nieciecza attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 54% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 17%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 43%, Nieciecza 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nieciecza's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.