Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Wisla Krakow at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Lechia Gdansk have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 48% versus Wisla Krakow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 44% | Wisla Krakow 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.72 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.102 / defence 0.919 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.731 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.059. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Lechia Gdansk games / 23 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 60% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 13%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Krakow 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 60% | Wisla Krakow 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 60% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.72 / Wisla Krakow 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.102 / def 0.919 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.731 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Wisla Krakow xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 60% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
60%
1.67
27%
3.73
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.43
0.71
Wisla Krakow xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
41.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.71 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 11W 6D 6L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2.36 PPG from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 0.96 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.36 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 0, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 54%, Wisla Krakow 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lechia Gdansk) and 54% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 54% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 54% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.72 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.71 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.73 / defence 1.43, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 60% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 13%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 44%, Wisla Krakow 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.