Lechia Gdansk 3-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Energa Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 2D 0L this season (7 games, 2.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 53% versus Raków Częstochowa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Raków Częstochowa 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.30 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.041 / defence 1.011 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.885 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.196. Data: 16 Lechia Gdansk games / 15 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 42% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 31%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 57% | Raków Częstochowa 56%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 42% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.30 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.041 / def 1.011 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.885 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 42% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.04x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.89x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.38
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 15 games, going 8W 5D 2L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.93 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.87 scored and 1.13 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 games (1.93 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.43 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 57%, Raków Częstochowa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lechia Gdansk) and 57% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 57% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 57% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.30 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 42% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 31%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Raków Częstochowa 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.93 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.