Lechia Gdansk 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 35%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Pogon Szczecin at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 44% versus Pogon Szczecin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 51% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.920 / defence 0.969 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.212 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.021. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Lechia Gdansk games / 61 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 33%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.23 / Pogon Szczecin 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.920 / def 0.969 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.212 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.15
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 14D 24L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.79 PPG from 61 outings (30W 19D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.67 points per game from 30 outings (13W 11D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 14D 24L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 30W 19D 12L in their last 61 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.87 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lechia Gdansk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 40%, Pogon Szczecin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lechia Gdansk) and 40% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 57% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Lechia Gdansk 0-1 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 35% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 51%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.