Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Energa Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Stadion Energa Gdańsk: 6W 2D 0L from 8 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lechia Gdansk are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 0 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 59% and Jagiellonia 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Jagiellonia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.93 xG and Jagiellonia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.173 / defence 1.023 | Jagiellonia attack 0.733 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.174. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Lechia Gdansk games / 17 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 62% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 17%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 62% | Jagiellonia 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 62% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.93 / Jagiellonia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.173 / def 1.023 | Jagiellonia attack 0.733 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 62% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.17) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.65
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.81
0.88
Jagiellonia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
41.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.88 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 6D 2L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.29 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 65%.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 9W 6D 2L in their last 17 games (1.94 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Jagiellonia away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.43 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 71%, Jagiellonia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Lechia Gdansk and 57% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 57% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 57% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.93 xG and Jagiellonia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jagiellonia outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Jagiellonia attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 62% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 17%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Jagiellonia 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.