Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Energa Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 4W 1D 0L at Stadion Energa Gdańsk — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Energa Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Stadion Energa Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 40% versus Gornik Zabrze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 50% | Gornik Zabrze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.90 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.138 / defence 0.973 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.942 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.201. Gornik Zabrze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Lechia Gdansk games / 10 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Gornik Zabrze 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Gornik Zabrze 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.90 / Gornik Zabrze 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.138 / def 0.973 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.942 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Gornik Zabrze xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 56% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.14x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.49
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.00
1.10
Gornik Zabrze xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
3%
30.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.10 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 6W 3D 1L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gornik Zabrze.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.50 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when Lechia Gdansk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 5-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, Gornik Zabrze 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lechia Gdansk and 75% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 75% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 75% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.90 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.10 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 56% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 22%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 50%, Gornik Zabrze 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.