Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lech Poznan face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 16 as Lech Poznan welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Poznan. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lech Poznan have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznan: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Poznan this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lech Poznan: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Pogon Szczecin, with 4 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Lech Poznan winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lech Poznan and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lech Poznan 66% and Pogon Szczecin 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 68% | Pogon Szczecin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.27 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.158 / defence 0.852 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.919 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Lech Poznan games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 39% | Draw 35% | Pogon Szczecin 27%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Pogon Szczecin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 60% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Poznan • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 39% | Draw 35% | Pogon Szczecin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Lech Poznan 1.27 / Pogon Szczecin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.158 / def 0.852 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.919 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pogon Szczecin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadion Poznan.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznan.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (10 meetings): Lech Poznan 5W | Draws 4 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lech Poznan's attack rating (1.16) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.88
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.29
1.02
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.02 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 19W 13D 6L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lech Poznan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pogon Szczecin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (8W 8D 2L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 19W 13D 6L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.78 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 78%, Pogon Szczecin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Lech Poznan) and 33% (Pogon Szczecin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Lech Poznan's games and 44% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Lech Poznan's matches and 33% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Lech Poznan and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.