Lech Poznan 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 11 as Lech Poznan welcome Motor Lublin to Enea Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Enea Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Enea Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Motor Lublin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Motor Lublin have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lech Poznan's 30% rate and Motor Lublin's 25% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time.
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lech Poznan 30% | Motor Lublin 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lech Poznan 40% | Motor Lublin 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.10 xG and Motor Lublin 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.237 / defence 0.661 | Motor Lublin attack 0.836 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.070. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Lech Poznan games / 10 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 9%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Motor Lublin 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 30% | Motor Lublin 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 39% | xG Lech Poznan 2.10 / Motor Lublin 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.237 / def 0.661 | Motor Lublin attack 0.836 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Motor Lublin xG
39%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
Lech Poznan 1 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin part of?
Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 73% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lech Poznan's attack at 1.24x the league average against Motor Lublin's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.51
9%
10.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.70
0.59
Motor Lublin xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
10.93
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
1%
89.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.9 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.59 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 8W 1D 1L from 10 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Motor Lublin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.50 PPG overall — Lech Poznan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 30%.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games; Motor Lublin in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 games (2.50 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Motor Lublin away?
Lech Poznan's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 3.00 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lech Poznan
1
Draws
1
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Motor Lublin 0-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Motor Lublin tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lech Poznan 25% BTTS, Motor Lublin 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lech Poznan) and 25% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 50%; Motor Lublin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 25% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 25% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Lech Poznan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Lech Poznan 1-2 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.10 xG and Motor Lublin 0.59 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.24 / defence 0.66 against Motor Lublin attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 73% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 9%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 40%, Motor Lublin 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time, and conceded here.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Motor Lublin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.