Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Enea Stadion to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lech Poznan at Enea Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Enea Stadion.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lech Poznan have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 48% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 48% | Cracovia Krakow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.31 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.031 / defence 0.725 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.975 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.185. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Lech Poznan games / 63 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Cracovia Krakow 4.55. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 40% | Cracovia Krakow 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Lech Poznan 1.31 / Cracovia Krakow 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.031 / def 0.725 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.975 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 46% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Lech Poznan 1W | Draws 3 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.16
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.84 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 31W 19D 13L from 63 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 21L across 63 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 18W 5D 8L from 31 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 7W 12D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 31W 19D 13L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 18W 24D 21L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.90 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lech Poznan
6
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 39%, Cracovia Krakow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lech Poznan) and 32% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 52% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 32% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lech Poznan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.31 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.03 / defence 0.72 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.