Korona Kielce 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Exbud Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Exbud Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Widzew Łódź arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Korona Kielce, 2 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Korona Kielce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 56% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 39% | Widzew Łódź 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.973 / defence 0.986 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.102. Data: 66 Korona Kielce games / 66 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Korona Kielce dominate the H2H record, yet Widzew Łódź are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Korona Kielce 80% | Widzew Łódź 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Korona Kielce 1.23 / Widzew Łódź 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.973 / def 0.986 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.827 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Widzew Łódź xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Exbud Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Korona Kielce 4W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.97x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.83x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
42%
2.38
33%
3.06
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.12
0.90
Widzew Łódź xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 0.90 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 21W 21D 24L from 66 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 31L across 66 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.20 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 14W 8D 11L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 7D 20L across 33 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Korona Kielce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 21W 21D 24L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 22W 13D 31L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.52 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 54%, Widzew Łódź 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Korona Kielce) and 52% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Korona Kielce's games and 58% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.90 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 25%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 39%, Widzew Łódź 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.27 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.