Korona Kielce 0-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Exbud Arena to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Korona Kielce have posted 6W 2D 2L at Exbud Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Exbud Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Korona Kielce) versus 1.40 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Legia Warszawa have the better historical record — 3 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Korona Kielce.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Korona Kielce in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Korona Kielce 59% and Legia Warszawa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 35% | Legia Warszawa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.65 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.025 / defence 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.137 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.326. Data: 35 Korona Kielce games / 34 Legia Warszawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Legia Warszawa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 70% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Exbud Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Korona Kielce 1.65 / Legia Warszawa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.025 / def 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.137 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Legia Warszawa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Exbud Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Korona Kielce 0 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Exbud Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 42% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Record (6 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 3 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.02) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.22
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
3.11
1.46
Legia Warszawa xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.46 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 12D 11L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (15W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. Legia Warszawa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.32 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Korona Kielce's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.76 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 9D 10L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.59 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 53%, Legia Warszawa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Korona Kielce) and 59% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Korona Kielce's games and 65% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 59% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 0-2 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.65 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.46 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Korona Kielce fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Legia Warszawa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.32 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.