Jagiellonia 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.20 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 66% versus Zaglebie Lubin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 52% | Zaglebie Lubin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.218 / defence 1.093 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.156 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.088. Data: 58 Jagiellonia games / 58 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 36%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Jagiellonia 1.42 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.218 / def 1.093 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.156 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.22x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.69
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 23D 20L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (19W 10D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.17 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (10W 3D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.12 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 15W 23D 20L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 19W 10D 29L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.46 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 68%, Zaglebie Lubin 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Jagiellonia and 64% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 32%; Zaglebie Lubin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 36% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jagiellonia's matches and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 25, as Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 37% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 52%, Zaglebie Lubin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.