Jagiellonia 1-1 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Jagiellonia welcome Ruch Chorzów to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruch Chorzów stand at 0W 7D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruch Chorzów away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ruch Chorzów in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jagiellonia, 0 for Ruch Chorzów and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Jagiellonia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Ruch Chorzów trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 71% and Ruch Chorzów 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jagiellonia 86% | Ruch Chorzów 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.31 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.274 / defence 0.950 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.901 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.252. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Jagiellonia games / 21 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 21% | Ruch Chorzów 15%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Ruch Chorzów 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Ruch Chorzów 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 21% | Ruch Chorzów 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Jagiellonia 2.31 / Ruch Chorzów 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.274 / def 0.950 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.901 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ruch Chorzów xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 64% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 0 | Ruch Chorzów 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.27x the league average against Ruch Chorzów's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.80
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.39
1.07
Ruch Chorzów xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
1%
66.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.07 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 21 games, going 12W 5D 4L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruch Chorzów sit at 0.67 PPG from 21 outings (1W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Ruch Chorzów — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 8W 1D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ruch Chorzów have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (0W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.05 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 games (1.95 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 11D 9L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.50 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 60%, Ruch Chorzów 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Jagiellonia and 60% for Ruch Chorzów. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ruch Chorzów in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Ruch Chorzów?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jagiellonia's games and 60% of Ruch Chorzów's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Jagiellonia's matches and 60% of Ruch Chorzów's.
Do Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, as Jagiellonia and Ruch Chorzów drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.31 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.07 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.27 / defence 0.95 against Ruch Chorzów attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 64% | Draw 21% | Ruch Chorzów 15%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 86%, Ruch Chorzów 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.