Jagiellonia 3-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Raków Częstochowa's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Jagiellonia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.28 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.934 / defence 1.120 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.066 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.265. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Jagiellonia games / 1 Raków Częstochowa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Raków Częstochowa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Jagiellonia 1.28 / Raków Częstochowa 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.934 / def 1.120 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.066 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Raków Częstochowa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Jagiellonia 3 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 29% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.10
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.79
1.51
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.51 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Raków Częstochowa by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jagiellonia heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's attacking output running into Jagiellonia's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Jagiellonia's games and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 100% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Raków Częstochowa 3-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.28 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.51 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 0%, Raków Częstochowa 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.