Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Legia Warszawa at Chorten Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Chorten Arena than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jagiellonia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Legia Warszawa 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Legia Warszawa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Legia Warszawa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.305 / defence 1.003 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.987 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.151. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Jagiellonia games / 56 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 20%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Legia Warszawa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Legia Warszawa 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Jagiellonia 1.97 / Legia Warszawa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.305 / def 1.003 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.987 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Jagiellonia 2 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 4 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.30x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.14
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.11
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
3%
35.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.14 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 17D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (19W 18D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jagiellonia's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.51 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 27W 17D 11L in their last 55 games (1.78 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 19W 18D 18L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
5
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 65%, Legia Warszawa at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jagiellonia) and 50% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jagiellonia's games and 69% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jagiellonia's matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.