Jagiellonia 1-3 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cracovia Krakow's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Jagiellonia 4–2 Cracovia Krakow — a Jagiellonia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 65%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 61% | Cracovia Krakow 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jagiellonia surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Cracovia Krakow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Jagiellonia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 65% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.480 / defence 0.928 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.813 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.081. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.480 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 61 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 61.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.60 | Draw 3.99 | Cracovia Krakow 7.96. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 50% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Jagiellonia 1.97 / Cracovia Krakow 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.480 / def 0.928 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.813 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Jagiellonia 1 - 3 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 62% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.81x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 61 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.99
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.82
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
2%
57.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.82 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 21D 16L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 17W 24D 20L from 61 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.23 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 30 home games (18W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 12D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 24D 20L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 5-2 Cracovia Krakow on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 30% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 30% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 73% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.82 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.48 / defence 0.93 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 13%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 61%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.52 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.