Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Zabrze plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games (1.44 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at Arena Zabrze this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.44 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.10 for Wisla Krakow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 56% versus Wisla Krakow 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 56% | Wisla Krakow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.73 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.964 / defence 1.151 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.761 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.195. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Gornik Zabrze games / 10 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Krakow 4.35. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Wisla Krakow 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.73 / Wisla Krakow 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.964 / def 1.151 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.761 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wisla Krakow xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 53% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.96x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.76x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.21
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.77
1.05
Wisla Krakow xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
24.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.05 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 1D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Wisla Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.80 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gornik Zabrze
0
Draws
2
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, Wisla Krakow have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Wisla Krakow 4-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 40%, Wisla Krakow 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Gornik Zabrze and 80% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 60% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 80% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Krakow defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.73 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.05 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 23%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 56%, Wisla Krakow 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Wisla Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.