Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 67% and Jagiellonia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 64% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Jagiellonia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.883 / defence 1.157 | Jagiellonia attack 0.937 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.205. Data: 39 Gornik Zabrze games / 40 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 32% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 40%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Jagiellonia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 32% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.14 / Jagiellonia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.883 / def 1.157 | Jagiellonia attack 0.937 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Jagiellonia xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 32% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
Record (2 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.94x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.67
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Jagiellonia xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.31 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 15W 9D 15L from 39 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 15L across 39 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.18 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Jagiellonia away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.53 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 53%, Jagiellonia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gornik Zabrze) and 63% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 26% of games; Jagiellonia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 58% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 63% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 7, as Gornik Zabrze and Jagiellonia drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.14 xG and Jagiellonia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Jagiellonia attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 32% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 40%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 64%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.38 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.