GKS Katowice 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GKS Katowice at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as GKS Katowice welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion miejski w Katowicach. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
GKS Katowice — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, GKS Katowice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, GKS Katowice have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Legia Warszawa have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for GKS Katowice.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
GKS Katowice trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 47% versus Legia Warszawa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 57% | Legia Warszawa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.56 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 0.934 / defence 0.927 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.976 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.202. Data: 53 GKS Katowice games / 54 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 3.85. GKS Katowice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa lead the H2H ledger, but GKS Katowice carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GKS Katowice 40% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion miejski w Katowicach • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG GKS Katowice 1.56 / Legia Warszawa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 0.934 / def 0.927 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.976 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa?
GKS Katowice 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion miejski w Katowicach.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa part of?
GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): GKS Katowice 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (0.93) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus GKS Katowice's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Legia Warszawa xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.09 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GKS Katowice's recent record stands at 22W 9D 22L from 53 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 18L across 53 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GKS Katowice on 1.42 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, GKS Katowice have managed 13W 6D 8L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.51 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 22W 9D 22L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 17D 18L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Legia Warszawa away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.67 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Legia Warszawa won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GKS Katowice's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa?
From 4 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when GKS Katowice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 52%, Legia Warszawa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (GKS Katowice) and 52% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GKS Katowice have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of GKS Katowice's games and 67% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GKS Katowice vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 21, as GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.56 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 57%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.42 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.