Górnik Łęczna 1-3 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Górnik Łęczna welcome Wisla Krakow to Stadion Górnik. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wisla Krakow — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Górnik Łęczna in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Wisla Krakow in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Górnik Łęczna 50% and Wisla Krakow 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Górnik Łęczna 50% | Wisla Krakow 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.15 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.730 / defence 1.519 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.905 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.088. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Górnik Łęczna games / 4 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 45%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Wisla Krakow 2.22. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Górnik Łęczna 50% | Wisla Krakow 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.15 / Wisla Krakow 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.730 / def 1.519 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.905 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Wisla Krakow xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 3 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 29% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.90
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.50
Wisla Krakow xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.50 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
The Goals Picture
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
1
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 50%, Wisla Krakow 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Górnik Łęczna and 100% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 75% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Górnik Łęczna's matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Krakow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Górnik Łęczna 1-3 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.15 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.50 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Krakow outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.73 / defence 1.52 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 45%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 50%, Wisla Krakow 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Górnik Łęczna shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Krakow scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.