Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Górnik plays host to Górnik Łęczna versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Górnik Łęczna's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Górnik, Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Piast Gliwice are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Górnik Łęczna — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 70%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 60% versus Piast Gliwice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 70% | Piast Gliwice 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 0.83 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.764 / defence 1.755 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.729 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.199. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Górnik Łęczna games / 10 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 20% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 54%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Piast Gliwice 1.85. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Górnik Łęczna 60% | Piast Gliwice 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 20% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Górnik Łęczna 0.83 / Piast Gliwice 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.764 / def 1.755 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.729 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Piast Gliwice xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 20% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.73x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
20%
4.96
26%
3.88
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.36
1.53
Piast Gliwice xG
4.96
20%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.53 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Górnik Łęczna come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 2D 7L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Górnik Łęczna's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 games (0.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 0.75 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Górnik Łęczna or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Górnik Łęczna have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
1
Draws
1
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Górnik Łęczna) and 0% (Piast Gliwice) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Górnik Łęczna) and 0% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 50%; Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 50% of games; Piast Gliwice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 11, as Górnik Łęczna and Piast Gliwice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 0.83 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.53 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.76 / defence 1.75 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 20% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 54%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 70%, Piast Gliwice 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.