Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.40 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 4 for Wisla Plock and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 52% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 48% | Wisla Plock 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Wisla Plock 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.015 / defence 0.955 | Wisla Plock attack 0.881 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.313. Data: 45 Cracovia Krakow games / 43 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 5.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.81 / Wisla Plock 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.015 / def 0.955 | Wisla Plock attack 0.881 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Wisla Plock xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 51% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Record (7 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 4W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.92
1.10
Wisla Plock xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
30.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.10 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 11W 18D 15L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 16L across 44 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.16 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 8W 10D 5L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 6W 8D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 18D 15L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Plock away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.48 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Wisla Plock 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 61%, Wisla Plock 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 65% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.