Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 July 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this season.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 44% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 42% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / defence 0.805 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.970 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.159. Data: 36 Cracovia Krakow games / 36 Legia Warszawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 23%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 4.35. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 30% | Legia Warszawa 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.40 / Legia Warszawa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.061 / def 0.805 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.970 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 July 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 47% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.29
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Legia Warszawa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.91 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 10D 12L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (14W 5D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.44 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 14W 5D 17L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.61 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 44%, Legia Warszawa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 61% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 3-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 23%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 42%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.44 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.