Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 21 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.40 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Lechia Gdansk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 60% versus Lechia Gdansk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 50% | Lechia Gdansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.045 / defence 1.301 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.997 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.219. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cracovia Krakow games / 20 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 37%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Lechia Gdansk 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Lechia Gdansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.60 / Lechia Gdansk 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.045 / def 1.301 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.997 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Lechia Gdansk xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 38% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.04) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
38%
2.63
25%
4.07
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.18
1.58
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.58 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 7W 6D 7L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 10W 6D 4L from 20 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.75 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 60%, Lechia Gdansk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cracovia Krakow) and 40% (Lechia Gdansk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 40% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.58 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 37%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 50%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.