Viking 4-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Valerenga at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 June 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Viking's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Viking, 0 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Valerenga 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 73% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.40 xG and Valerenga 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.069 / defence 1.004 | Valerenga attack 1.356 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.198. Valerenga have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Viking games / 36 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Viking 1.40 / Valerenga 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.069 / def 1.004 | Valerenga attack 1.356 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Valerenga xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Valerenga kick off?
Viking vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Valerenga?
Viking 4 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Viking vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Valerenga part of?
Viking vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 31% chance of winning, Valerenga a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Viking and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Viking and Valerenga in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.07x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.71
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Viking xG
Total xG
3.03
1.63
Valerenga xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.29
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Viking and 1.63 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking's recent record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 5L across 30 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.47 PPG, Valerenga on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Viking have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Valerenga away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Viking or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
3
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Valerenga have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Valerenga?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 47% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 47% of Valerenga's.
Do Viking and Valerenga tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Valerenga 4-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.40 xG and Valerenga 1.63 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Valerenga attack 1.36 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 31% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 42%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.47 PPG, Valerenga 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.