Viking vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 0.50 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Viking register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Rosenborg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Rosenborg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 74% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.84 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.093 / defence 1.133 | Rosenborg attack 1.023 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Data: 57 Viking games / 57 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 3.70. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 45% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 1.84 / Rosenborg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.093 / def 1.133 | Rosenborg attack 1.023 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Rosenborg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Rosenborg kick off?
Viking vs Rosenborg kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Rosenborg part of?
Viking vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 45% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.02x) against Viking's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.62
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Viking xG
Total xG
3.26
1.42
Rosenborg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Viking and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Viking and 1.42 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 26W 14D 17L from 57 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 16L across 57 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Viking against 1.67 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 7D 7L from 29 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.81 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Rosenborg away?
Viking's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.79 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
2
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Rosenborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Viking, 59% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Viking and 62% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Viking's games and 59% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Viking's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Viking and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Viking and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.84 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 45% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 27%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 74%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.61 PPG, Rosenborg 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.