Viking 3-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Lyse Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking at Lyse Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lyse Arena.
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 1.70 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Rosenborg 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 68% | Rosenborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.56 xG and Rosenborg 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.700 / defence 0.818 | Rosenborg attack 0.692 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.232. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.700 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Viking games / 36 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 77% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 7%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.30 | Draw 6.25 | Rosenborg 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Viking (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Rosenborg lead the H2H ledger, but Viking carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Viking 50% | Rosenborg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 77% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 47% | xG Viking 2.56 / Rosenborg 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.700 / def 0.818 | Rosenborg attack 0.692 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Viking (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Rosenborg xG
47%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Rosenborg kick off?
Viking vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Viking 3 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Viking vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Rosenborg part of?
Viking vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 77% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Viking and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
Record (8 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 4W.
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.70x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.69x) against Viking's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
77%
1.30
16%
6.29
7%
13.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Viking xG
Total xG
3.25
0.70
Rosenborg xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
13.74
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
8%
12.87
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
1%
176.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Viking and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Viking and 0.70 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 38W 14D 8L from 60 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 19L across 60 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 22W 6D 2L from 30 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Rosenborg away?
Viking's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.40 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Viking or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Viking
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 63%, Rosenborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 67% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rosenborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Viking's games and 53% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 67% of Rosenborg's.
Do Viking and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Rosenborg 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.56 xG and Rosenborg 0.70 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.70 / defence 0.82 against Rosenborg attack 0.69 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 77% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 7%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Rosenborg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.