Viking 1-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Kristiansund BK at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 1W 4D 1L from 6 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Viking) versus 1.40 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Viking register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 46% and Kristiansund BK 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 64% | Kristiansund BK 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.51 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.104 / defence 1.084 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.319. Data: 11 Viking games / 11 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Kristiansund BK 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Viking 1.51 / Kristiansund BK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.104 / def 1.084 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Viking (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Kristiansund BK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Viking 1 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Viking vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 43% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Viking and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in?
Viking (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.10x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.87
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Viking xG
Total xG
2.76
1.26
Kristiansund BK xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Viking and 1.26 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.00 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Viking's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.40 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Viking's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Viking
0
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 60%, Kristiansund BK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 80% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Viking's games and 100% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 80% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Viking and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Viking 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Viking 1-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.51 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.26 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 64%, Kristiansund BK 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.00 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.