Viking 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lyse Arena plays host to Viking versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at Lyse Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lyse Arena.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Viking's favour (2.60 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Viking are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 5–2 with Viking winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 70% versus Ham-Kam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 68% | Ham-Kam 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.94 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.310 / defence 0.805 | Ham-Kam attack 0.938 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.415. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Viking games / 57 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 19%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Viking 50% | Ham-Kam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Viking 1.94 / Ham-Kam 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.310 / def 0.805 | Ham-Kam attack 0.938 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Viking (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Viking vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Viking 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Viking vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Ham-Kam part of?
Viking vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 57% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Viking and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Ham-Kam?
Record (7 meetings): Viking 4W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Viking and Ham-Kam in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.31x the league average against Ham-Kam's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.94x) against Viking's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.23
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Viking xG
Total xG
3.01
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
35.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Viking and 1.07 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 35W 14D 8L from 57 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 24L across 57 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 20W 6D 2L from 28 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.23 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 35W 14D 8L in their last 57 games (2.09 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Ham-Kam away?
Viking's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.36 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 7-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Ham-Kam?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 64%, Ham-Kam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Viking) and 46% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Viking's games and 46% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Viking's matches and 46% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Viking and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.94 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.31 / defence 0.81 against Ham-Kam attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 57% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Ham-Kam 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.