Viking 5-2 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (1.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 1.30 PPG lead over Aalesund (1.70 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Aalesund in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 76%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 59% and Aalesund 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 71% | Aalesund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.44 xG and Aalesund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.106 / defence 1.258 | Aalesund attack 0.737 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.440. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Viking games / 17 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Viking (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.77 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 75% | Aalesund 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 67% | xG Viking 2.44 / Aalesund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.106 / def 1.258 | Aalesund attack 0.737 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Viking (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Aalesund xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Aalesund kick off?
Viking vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Viking 5 - 2 Aalesund.
Where is Viking vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Aalesund part of?
Viking vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 62% chance of winning, Aalesund a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Viking and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Viking and Aalesund in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.11x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.74x) against Viking's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.38
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Viking xG
Total xG
3.77
1.33
Aalesund xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
2%
58.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Viking and 1.33 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Viking have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 6W 4D 7L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 1W 4D 12L from 17 games, 0.41 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.24 scored and 2.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 12L in their last 17 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Aalesund away?
Viking's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.38 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Viking
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Aalesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Viking, 62% for Aalesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Viking and 62% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Viking's games and 62% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Viking's matches and 62% of Aalesund's.
Do Viking and Aalesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Aalesund 5-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.44 xG and Aalesund 1.33 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.11 / defence 1.26 against Aalesund attack 0.74 / defence 1.54, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 62% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 71%, Aalesund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.