Valerenga 4-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Valerenga welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 1 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Valerenga have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valerenga register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 68% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.39 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.977 / defence 0.995 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.001 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.143. Data: 40 Valerenga games / 38 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 40% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 40% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Valerenga 1.39 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.977 / def 0.995 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.001 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga 4 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.20
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.14 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valerenga's recent record stands at 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 17L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 11W 7D 1L from 19 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Valerenga's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.11 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 74%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valerenga) and 42% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Valerenga's games and 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valerenga's recent games and 42% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.39 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 40% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.