Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Valerenga welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valerenga at 1.10 PPG versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Valerenga, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2021, ended 4–1 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 70% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 52% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.34 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.991 / defence 0.886 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.711 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Valerenga games / 50 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 69% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 100% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 69% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Valerenga 2.34 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.991 / def 0.886 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.711 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 69% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Valerenga (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.80
10%
10.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.18
0.84
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
10.03
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
10%
10.37
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
104.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.84 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valerenga's recent record stands at 21W 19D 10L from 50 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 24L across 50 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 13W 11D 1L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.06 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 21W 19D 10L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Valerenga's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 80%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Valerenga) and 48% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Valerenga's games and 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Valerenga's recent games and 48% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.34 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.84 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 69% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 10%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.