Valerenga 0-4 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Valerenga welcome Rosenborg to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Valerenga have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valerenga have won 1, Rosenborg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 68% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.43 xG and Rosenborg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.912 / defence 0.792 | Rosenborg attack 0.842 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.412. Valerenga's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Valerenga games / 38 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 48% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 4.00. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Valerenga 70% | Rosenborg 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 48% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Valerenga 1.43 / Rosenborg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.912 / def 0.792 | Rosenborg attack 0.842 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rosenborg xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Rosenborg kick off?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Valerenga 0 - 4 Rosenborg.
Where is Valerenga vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Rosenborg part of?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 48% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Valerenga and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.65
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.37
0.94
Rosenborg xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.94 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 60 games, going 26W 22D 12L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (28W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.67 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 17W 12D 1L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 26W 22D 12L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Rosenborg away?
Valerenga's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.10 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 73%, Rosenborg at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valerenga) and 63% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Valerenga's games and 60% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Valerenga's matches and 63% of Rosenborg's.
Do Valerenga and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Valerenga 0-4 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.43 xG and Rosenborg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against Rosenborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 48% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 25%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.67 PPG, Rosenborg 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.